Benefiting from the joint promotion of domestic shared battery swapping, new national standards, and overseas demand growth, the sales of electric two wheeled vehicles https://www.qianxinmotor.com/fully-electric-800w-45kmh-dics-braking-scooter-electric-product/in China will exceed 54 million in 2023, and the trends of two wheeled vehicle electrification, lightweighting, intelligence, and networking will continue to strengthen.The vast market space has given rise to a massive demand for batteries. Currently, the penetration of lithium batteries, sodium batteries, and other technologies is accelerating, accelerating the upgrading and transformation of the electric two wheeled vehicle industry.
By 2030, electric two wheeled vehicle batteries will present a pattern of “lithium sodium lead dancing together” and dividing the world into three parts. The trend for electric two wheeled vehicles is to transition from lead-acid batteries to lithium and sodium batteries. High energy density lithium batteries can make cars lighter and have longer range. At the same time, the application of sodium batteries can enrich the product line of enterprises and enhance their risk resistance ability.
In recent years, influenced by the new national standards, the penetration rate of lithium batteries has rapidly increased. However, in the past two years, the price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed to 600000 yuan/ton, and the penetration rate has declined. Manufacturers have chosen relatively inexpensive lead-acid batteries to control cost expenditures. At the same time, there are still many safety hazards and uneven quality issues in the lithium battery market for two wheeled vehicles.
But with the stable prices of lithium-ion raw materials and further improvement of the new national standard policy, the process of replacing lead-acid with lithium-ion batteries will accelerate in the current market space of over 350 million electric bicycles in China, with an annual increase of nearly 40 million vehicles.
We anticipate that the penetration rate of lithium batteries is expected to reach approximately 50% by 2023, corresponding to a 16GWh installed capacity. The compound growth rate of demand in the next three years will reach 30%. On this basis, the development of shared electric bicycles and the maturity of battery swapping models are expected to continue to catalyze the incremental market.
From the perspective of the two wheeled vehicle lithium battery technology route, the market pattern presents a situation of multiple paths coexisting and multiple application points blooming. Due to the higher cost-effectiveness requirements of lithium-ion batteries for electric two wheeled vehicles and the dispersed corporate landscape, different lithium-ion material technologies are currently coexisting. Under the continuous iteration and upgrading of technology, leading enterprises will launch products with high cost-effectiveness, which will lead the industry trend.
On the other hand, sodium batteries have huge replacement space in electric two wheeled vehicles due to their advantages in cost and safety.
From a policy perspective, since 2022, various departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have repeatedly mentioned strengthening the research and development of high-energy density energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries in their policy plans. In July, standardized symbols and names for sodium ion batteries were officially recommended, and sodium ion batteries have become a key focus for research and development improvement.
From a product perspective, with the gradual use of sodium ion batteries, costs are expected to continue to decrease, and the selling price and net profit margin of bicycles will further open up.
With the gradual maturity of sodium battery related technologies, the gradual improvement of industrial chain supporting facilities, and the gradual manifestation of scale effects, it is expected that the comprehensive cost of sodium batteries is expected to decrease to below 0.4 yuan/Wh in the next 5 years, which is close to the cost of lead-acid batteries and has a significant advantage over the cost of lithium batteries. This will undoubtedly accelerate the penetration rate of sodium ion batteries into electric two wheeled vehicles, and its industrialization will drive a new round of transformation for two wheeled vehicles.
It is predicted that the market size of sodium batteries will reach 91GWh and 1132GWh respectively by 2025 and 2030. The market size of sodium batteries will maintain rapid growth in the next 8 years, and the shipment volume of sodium batteries in two wheeled vehicles will reach 8.6GWh by 2030.
Overall, the electric two wheeled vehicle industry has gradually entered a benign development stage dominated by product upgrading, capacity expansion, channel layout, and brand value. During this period of rapid development in the two wheeled vehicle industry, it is even more necessary for the entire industry chain to collaborate and explore new development models, share cutting-edge new technologies, and promote the construction of a healthy new ecosystem for the entire industry chain of lithium batteries, sodium batteries, two wheeled vehicles, and shared battery swapping.
Post time: Dec-18-2023