The world’s second largest motorcycle market, subsidies are expected to catalyze electrification.
Motorcycles are the main mode of transportation in Southeast Asia, with annual sales exceeding 10 million units.https://www.qianxinmotor.com/2000w-china-classic-vespa-ckd-electric-scooter-with-removable-lithium-battery-product/The rugged terrain with many mountains and low per capita income make motorcycles the most popular mode of transportation for Southeast Asian residents. According to statistics from organizations such as the ASEAN Automobile Federation (AAF) and MarkLines, Southeast Asia is the world’s second-largest motorcycle market in 2022, accounting for 21% of global motorcycle sales. The combined annual sales of motorcycles in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam alone are around 10 million units.
Southeast Asian countries are promoting the “oil to electricity” conversion of two wheeled vehicles, and electric two wheeled stations are becoming a policy trend. According to information disclosed on the official websites of various governments, the Philippines has proposed to provide import tariff reductions for electric motorcycles, electric two wheelers, and their components over the next five years starting from 2023; In 2023, Indonesia and Thailand have decided to provide subsidies equivalent to over 3000 yuan per electric motorcycle. With more and more Southeast Asian countries increasing their policy efforts towards electrification, we believe that 2023 is expected to become the starting point for the accelerated development of electric two wheeled vehicles in Southeast Asia.
Replacing oil motorcycles and increasing usage penetration rate, with annual sales expected to exceed 40 million.
The number of motorcycles in Southeast Asia is huge, and the scale is expanding year by year. According to the statistical data of ASEAN Stats, we estimate that the current motorcycle ownership in Southeast Asia is around 250 million units. Although the growth rate has slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic from 2019 to 2021, it has basically maintained a growth trend in the past decade, with a CAGR of about 5% from 2012 to 2022.The total population of Southeast Asia is close to half of China, providing support for the market demand for various modes of transportation. According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the population of China is about 1.4 billion, with a stable growth rate, while the population of Southeast Asia is around 670 million, about half of China’s population, and still growing slightly at an annual growth rate of 1%.
With the advancement of electrification, electric two wheeled vehicles will replace gasoline motorcycles, and the proportion of motorcycles in the total demand for two wheeled vehicles is expected to decrease. From the historical data of the Chinese market, the demand for electric two wheelers continues to grow, squeezing the motorcycle market. In 2022, the sales of electric two wheelers per 10000 people in China were 354, an increase of 64% compared to 216 in 2010; In 2022, the sales of motorcycles per 10000 people in China were 99, a 25% decrease from 131 in 2010. In 2022, motorcycles accounted for only 22% of China’s total demand for two wheeled vehicles, while in 2010 they accounted for nearly 40%.
The lower threshold for the use of electric two wheeled vehicles is expected to drive the overall penetration rate of two wheeled vehicles upwards. Motorcycles can be seen everywhere in Indonesia and are the most convenient and economical means of transportation in the area. From the usage situation, due to the high threshold for motorcycle use, the local cycling population is mainly young and middle-aged men. We believe that electric bicycles are relatively lightweight and easy to operate, which will appeal to more women and middle-aged and elderly consumers, forming a considerable incremental market space. In addition, the development history of electric two wheeled vehicles in China also provides similar experience. Even during the peak period of motorcycle sales in China from 2005 to 2010, the total sales of two wheeled vehicles in China were less than 50 million, significantly lower than the current two wheeled vehicle market with over 70 million vehicles.
Southeast Asian consumers have similar preferences, providing reference for the design and promotion of electrified products.
Scooters and curved beam motorcycles are the two most common types of motorcycles in Southeast Asia, with scooters being the main market in Indonesia. The iconic feature of a scooter is the wide foot pedal between the handlebar and the seat, which allows you to rest your feet on it during driving. It is generally equipped with smaller wheels of about 10 inches and continuously variable transmission; However, curved beam cars do not have foot pedals, making them more suitable for road use. They are usually equipped with small displacement engines and automatic clutches that do not require manual operation, which are cheap, low in fuel consumption, and outstanding in cost-effectiveness. According to AISI data, the proportion of scooter sales in Indonesia’s motorcycle market is on the rise, reaching nearly 90%.
Bent beam cars and scooters are evenly matched in Thailand and Vietnam, with high consumer acceptance. Both scooters and curved beam motorcycles represented by Honda Wave are common types of motorcycles on the road in Thailand. Although there is a trend towards high displacement in the Thai market, motorcycles with a displacement of 125cc and below still account for 75% of total sales in 2022. According to Statista’s statistics, scooters account for about 40% of the Vietnamese market share and are the best-selling types of motorcycles. According to the Vietnam Motorcycle Manufacturers Association (VAMM), Honda Vision and Honda Wave Alpha were the two best-selling motorcycles in 2023.
Post time: Dec-01-2023